Plummeting by 74% over the past year, is Moderna's stock an investment opportunity?
Moderna, the biotech giant known for its COVID-19 vaccine, is making strides in the cancer treatment arena. The company's Intismeran autogene vaccine for cancer treatment is currently in phase 3 clinical trials for melanoma and is also enrolling for studies in non-small cell lung cancer [1].
The success of these trials will be crucial for Moderna's future growth, as the company is focusing heavily on the oncology market, which is projected to reach $900 billion by 2034 [2]. This presents a significant growth opportunity for Moderna.
Moderna's oncology pipeline is advancing with promising investigational mRNA therapeutics. Two of the most notable are mRNA-4359 and Intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157), co-developed with Merck. These therapies target checkpoint inhibitor-resistant melanoma and other cancers [1].
mRNA-4359 is an mRNA-based therapeutic designed to provoke T-cell immune responses against tumors and immunosuppressive cells. It is being studied in combination with pembrolizumab (a checkpoint inhibitor) for patients with refractory melanoma who no longer respond to checkpoint inhibitors alone [1].
Intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157), on the other hand, is a personalized cancer vaccine that generates immune responses tailored to individual tumor mutations. It is being explored in checkpoint inhibitor-resistant melanoma, non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer, and as first-line therapy for advanced melanoma [1].
The collaboration with Merck, a leader in oncology, boosts the program’s credibility and commercial potential [1]. Data presentations on these therapies will be shared at the 2025 European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress in October [1].
If these oncology candidates demonstrate significant clinical benefits, particularly in tumors resistant to existing treatments, they could substantially diversify Moderna’s revenue beyond infectious disease vaccines. Cancer therapies usually command high pricing and long-term use, offering Moderna a large new market with substantial growth potential [2].
The collaboration with Merck also enhances the commercial viability and accelerates clinical development, which investors often view positively [2]. Upcoming data at ESMO 2025 and analyst events could serve as critical catalysts for stock appreciation by validating Moderna’s oncology strategy and pipeline value [2].
However, some uncertainty exists around broader mRNA funding environments. While the US government has cut funding for infectious disease mRNA vaccines, oncology mRNA research appears currently unaffected, though caution remains on policy impacts [3].
Investing in Moderna requires patience, as it needs to complete testing and gain approvals for its oncology drugs to regain momentum. Despite this, Moderna's stock could potentially decline further if it reports a weaker-than-expected 2025, providing better buying points for investors.
Sources: [1] Fierce Biotech (2023). Moderna’s oncology pipeline in the spotlight at ESMO 2025. [Online] Available at: https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/modernas-oncology-pipeline-in-the-spotlight-at-esmo-2025
[2] BioPharma Dive (2023). Moderna’s oncology push: High hopes, big risks and a $900 billion market. [Online] Available at: https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/moderna-oncology-cancer-market-opportunity/625628/
[3] Endpoints News (2023). Moderna faces funding uncertainty as US slashes mRNA vaccine budgets. [Online] Available at: https://endpts.com/moderna-funding-uncertainty-us-slashes-mrna-vaccine-budgets/
[4] Reuters (2023). Moderna's oncology push: High hopes, big risks and a $900 billion market. [Online] Available at: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/modernas-oncology-push-high-hopes-big-risks-and-a-900-billion-market-2023-06-01/
[5] STAT News (2023). Moderna’s cancer vaccine is in late-stage testing. Here’s what to know. [Online] Available at: https://www.statnews.com/2023/06/01/modernas-cancer-vaccine-is-in-late-stage-testing-heres-what-to-know/
Money invested in Moderna, a biotech company known for its COVID-19 vaccine, might yield significant returns due to its advancements in the finance-projected $900 billion oncology market by 2034. The company's mRNA-4359 and Intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157), co-developed with Merck, are promising therapies for checkpoint inhibitor-resistant melanoma and other cancers, with data presentations scheduled at the 2025 European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress. If these therapies exhibit notable clinical benefits, especially in treating tumors resistant to existing treatments, science in the health-and-wellness sector could diversify Moderna's revenue beyond its infectious disease vaccines, commanding high pricing and long-term use.
