Future Climate Consciousness and Military Implications: Exploring the Medical, Tactical, and Moral Effects
In a series of webinars, Professor Tim Hodgetts, the Master General of the Army Medical Services and former Surgeon General of the UK Armed Forces, is leading a discussion on how climate change is shaping the future of warfare. The sessions cover global security considerations, operational readiness, and systems-level adaptation.
The increasing role of humanitarian and disaster response as part of defense strategy is a topic of conversation. As extreme heat, rising sea levels, water scarcity, and shifting disease patterns become new threats military operations must address due to climate change, the ethical implications and challenges to international humanitarian law (IHL) in future warfare are being scrutinised.
Key ethical implications include displacement and non-refoulement, state obligations and justice, and access to human rights in extreme conditions. Climate change-driven disasters and extreme environments are forcing people to move, sometimes across borders. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has affirmed that states have an obligation under international law not to forcibly return individuals to places where climate conditions endanger their lives. This extends humanitarian protections to climate-displaced persons, raising ethical issues about state responsibility and the protection of vulnerable groups.
The ICJ has also underscored states' legal obligations to mitigate emissions and prevent environmental harm that exacerbates conflicts and displacement. This reflects an ethical duty of states, especially developed nations, to provide financial and capacity-building support to vulnerable states affected by climate change, reinforcing principles of equity and justice.
Worsening climates affect the right to life, health, and a clean environment. IHL will face challenges ensuring these rights during armed conflict in extreme environments, where infrastructure and humanitarian access may be disrupted or severely limited.
Challenges to implementing IHL in this context include legal gaps and ambiguities, military emissions and environmental damage, complex multi-actor coordination, and sovereignty and loss of territory. While the ICJ's advisory opinion advances recognition of climate change impacts in international law, it remains cautious and limited in scope. Specifically, how displacement related to climate and environmental factors interacts fully with IHL norms governing armed conflict and protection of civilians is not yet fully articulated or settled.
Armed forces contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and environmental degradation, yet international law is still evolving on military responsibilities in climate mitigation. Balancing military necessity with environmental protection represents a complex ethical and legal challenge. Ensuring adequate, timely humanitarian support amidst climate-induced conflict will require better international coordination and resource sharing.
Rising sea levels threaten Small Island Developing States and coastal areas, implicating territorial sovereignty and resources. This raises difficult questions about the continuity of statehood and its protection under international law during climate-induced upheaval, with ethical ramifications for displaced populations.
In summary, future warfare influenced by climate change and extreme environments will test international humanitarian law's capacity to address displacement, state duty, environmental protection, and human rights in new contexts. There is growing international legal recognition of these issues, but significant ethical and practical challenges remain to fully integrate climate realities into the protection framework of armed conflict.
The webinar series consists of multiple parts, with Part 1 and Part 3 available to watch. The series also explores the preparation of military personnel for environmental extremes in operational settings, logistics, soldier health, and medical readiness being redefined due to extreme environments.
[1] International Court of Justice. 2021. Advisory Opinion on the Chagos Archipelago. https://www.icj-cij.org/files/case-related/16/16708.pdf [2] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2021. The Paris Agreement - Key aspects. https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement-key-aspects [3] United Nations Development Programme. 2021. Human Development Report 2021: Building a Future on Peace and Resilience. https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/human-development-reports/human-development-report-2021.html [4] United Nations Environment Programme. 2021. Adapting to Climate Change: A Guide for Policymakers. https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/32772/Adapting_to_Climate_Change_A_Guide_for_Policymakers.pdf [5] International Organization for Migration. 2021. Climate Change, Disasters and Migration. https://www.iom.int/climate-change-disasters-and-migration
- The increasing role of medicine, particularly in addressing medical-conditions exacerbated by shifting disease patterns due to climate change, is a crucial component of the future warfare discourse.
- The Principle of non-refoulement, a key ethical implication in the context of climate change, dictates that states must not expel or return individuals to areas where the environmental conditions pose a threat to their lives, extending medical-care and health-and-wellness protections to climate-displaced persons.
- As climate change exacerbates conflicts and displacement, science, specifically environmental-science, plays a pivotal role in understanding the escalating environmental risks and in devising strategies for mitigating these issues.
- The challenges faced by the medical community in delivering adequate, timely support in extreme environments, such as those affected by climate change, highlight the need for improved co-ordination and resource-sharing within the health-and-wellness sector on a global scale.
